On current trends, 535 of the UK’s 650 constituencies are projected to be majority or plurality non‑religious by 2031.
Look up the religious and non-religious make-up of any constituency — from the 2021 census through to projections for 2031.
On current trends, 535 of the UK’s 650 constituencies are projected to be majority or plurality non‑religious by 2031.
Look up the religious and non-religious make-up of any constituency — from the 2021 census through to projections for 2031.
The religious make-up of every UK constituency, now and to 2031.
Where these figures come from
The starting point is the 2021 Census of England and Wales, the 2022 Scotland census, and the 2021 Northern Ireland census, each of which asked people about their religion. ‘Religious identity’ here means how people chose to describe themselves — a question of cultural belonging and self-description rather than belief or practice, which can differ.
Projections to 2031 build on Believe the Data’s model, which carries forward the trends seen between the last two censuses at local-authority level and apportions them geographically to each of the 650 constituencies. They assume recent trends continue; they are estimates, not forecasts, and become less certain further out.
Whole-population figures are shown by default. A constituency’s ‘plurality’ is simply its largest single group; a ‘majority’ means that group exceeds 50%. Detailed breakdowns of smaller traditions are shown as illustrative where the underlying split is not yet published.
Jack Russell — Believe the Data
The projection model is the work of Jack Russell, a Belfast-based data scientist, analyst and trainer who writes the Believe the Data blog. His professional background is in statistical modelling and machine learning — applied Bayesian methods, simulation, and the core Python data stack — with experience at Google, Barclays, and Oliver Wyman, and he teaches data science as an associate instructor at Neueda.
BeliefMap.uk builds on his published series on UK religious identity: Projecting Belief (2025), the accompanying model explainer, and The Inflectorate (2026).
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The shift, 2021–2031
Drag the slider or press play to watch each constituency’s largest belief group change over the projection.
Five issues at the tipping point
As more constituencies pass the point where most residents are non-religious, a set of long-standing questions becomes harder to set aside. In each of these areas, law and provision were built around an assumption of religious majorities that, across much of the country, no longer holds.
Faith school admissions
Around a third of state-funded schools are faith schools, and many can select pupils by religion. Where the surrounding population is increasingly non-religious, a growing share of families find their nearest schools prioritising a faith they do not share — raising real questions about fair access to local education.
Collective worship in schools
Schools in England and Wales are still required by law to hold a daily act of mainly Christian collective worship. In constituencies where most people are non-religious, this asks schools to organise religious observance that reflects neither most pupils nor their families.
Inclusive Religion and Worldviews education
What children learn about religion and belief is decided locally and varies widely. As the non-religious become the majority in more areas, the case grows for a balanced, objective curriculum that covers religious and non-religious worldviews fairly — wherever a child happens to go to school.
Non-religious pastoral support
Pastoral care in hospitals, prisons and the armed forces is still largely religious. Where most of the people being supported are non-religious, equal access to trained non-religious pastoral carers — for anyone who would value someone who shares their outlook — becomes a matter of fair provision.
Representative politics
Twenty-six Church of England bishops sit in the House of Lords as of right. In the Commons, MPs still reserve their seats using prayer cards — and because the chamber has fewer seats than there are MPs, attending prayers gives a member an advantage in being called to speak. As the electorate becomes steadily more non-religious, arrangements like these sit increasingly at odds with the people being represented.
These are decisions for Parliament
If any of these matter to you, your MP is the person to tell. Humanists UK will help you find them and send a message — it takes a couple of minutes.
Email your MP →Back the case for an open, secular society
BeliefMap.uk is a joint project with Humanists UK, the national charity for non-religious people. We make the case for fair treatment of everyone, whatever they believe — in Parliament, the courts and the media. Supporters help us do it, and we’ll keep you posted on the issues above.
